Running a shipping and logistics business means dealing with the ups and downs of seasonal shipment volumes. As someone who’s been in the industry for over 20 years, I’ve seen my fair share of holiday rushes and summer slumps. Believe me, it can get pretty crazy trying to manage massive spikes in volume around Christmas or predictable dips when schools let out for summer. If you don’t plan ahead, these seasonal fluctuations can totally overwhelm your operations and ruin service quality.

In this post, I want to share some of the key strategies I’ve learned for smoothing out the seasonal peaks and valleys. These tips come from lots of trial and error over my career. I’ve made plenty of mistakes, like the time we got totally swamped with Valentine’s Day flower deliveries because I didn’t increase drivers and trucks. Or that summer we had way too much unused warehouse space and staff downtime because I failed to foresee the volume drop.

Trust me, I’ve learned the hard way on many occasions! But over the years, I’ve developed a good system for handling seasonal changes in volumes based on forecasting, adapting operations, communicating with customers, leveraging partnerships, and monitoring trends closely. Here’s my best advice for your shipping company on navigating the turbulence of seasonal peaks and dips:

Expect the Expected: Plan for Predictable Seasonal Volume Changes

First and foremost, be proactive about planning for foreseeable seasonal patterns. Shipping volumes fluctuate for very predictable reasons relating to major holidays, school schedules, vacation travel and weather. Let’s walk through some of the main seasonal changes so you know what to look for:

Holiday Seasons

The biggest spikes in shipment volumes typically occur around major gift-giving holidays:

– Christmas and Hanukkah: Online shopping has made November and December the highest-volume months for parcel, freight, and last-mile delivery. Customers rely on timely shipping to get gifts to loved ones.

– Valentine’s Day: Florists, chocolatiers, jewelry companies, and other gift providers have significant order surges in early February. Time-sensitive delivery is imperative. 

– Mother’s Day: Flower deliveries, online gifts, and shipments to mom cause shipment volumes to rise in early May.

– Father’s Day: Mid-June brings increased shipments of grills, tools, ties, and gift baskets for dad.

– Halloween: Candy and costume orders rise through October, with volume peaking just before October 31st.

Back-to-School Season

July and August are hectic for shipments of school supplies, computers, apparel, and dorm furnishings. College students especially rely on online ordering and delivery.

Vacation Seasons 

Warmer weather and time off school lead to spikes in certain categories:

– Spring Break: March and April see more shipments of swimsuits, beach supplies, and vacation gear.

– Summer Vacation: Kids home from school fuel shipments of activity kits, summer camp supplies, and recreational equipment in June and July.

– Holiday Travel Periods: Volume increases around Thanksgiving, Christmas, and other major holidays as people ship gifts and extra belongings to their destinations.

Weather-Related Changes

Severe weather impacts supply chains:

– Winter Weather: December to March sees more demand for snow removal equipment, cold weather apparel and gear, and ice melt products. Dangerous conditions can also hample transportation.

– Hurricane Season: August to November brings surging volume of emergency supplies, water, plywood, and generators to affected regions. Storm disruptions often delay shipments.

– Heat Waves: Hot summer temperatures drive up shipments of air conditioners, cooling products, and swimming pool supplies. Overheating trucks can slow deliveries.

Preparing for Seasonal Shipment Volume Increases

Major volume spikes during the holidays, school breaks, and favorable weather require extensive preparation to avoid delivery delays and poor customer service. Here are key strategies for getting ready for foreseeable seasonal shipment surges:

Review Historical Data 

Analyze volume patterns from prior years to predict upcoming peaks. Compare week-to-week and month-to-month figures to estimate increases down to the daily level. Review which product categories see the biggest jumps. Understanding precise historical patterns enables accurate staffing, facility, and inventory plans.

Forecast Demand 

Work closely with high-volume shippers to get their projections for the upcoming peak season. Communicate frequently to update forecasts as the season approaches. Even without perfect data, develop quantitative volume forecasts using past figures and customer input. Share estimates internally so everyone is aware and prepared.

Adjust Staffing and Resources

Add temporary employees to handle call volumes, warehouse work, delivery driving, and customer service during peak season. Consider offering overtime and bonuses to recruit seasonal help. Scale back temporary staffing as volumes decline after the peak. Make sure additional equipment, trucks, and facilities are lined up to handle added volume.

Communicate with Customers 

Inform regular shipper accounts of expected shipment volume spikes and your plans to maintain excellent service levels. Provide guidance on shipment timing to avoid bottlenecks. Set expectations on delivery dates to manage expectations. Listing cutoff dates to receive pre-peak pricing and guarantees sets clear expectations.

Update Systems and Processes  

Volume surges quickly overwhelm manual processes and outdated IT systems. Upgrade shipping software, barcode scanners, inventory tools, and tracking systems to improve efficiency. Refine routing plans, staff procedures, loading processes, and inventory slotting to optimize operations. Speed and accuracy are vital when volumes surge.  

Handling Seasonal Shipment Volume Decreases

Just as important as preparing for peaks is effectively dealing with seasonal slumps in shipping activity. Lower volumes present operational challenges but also opportunities. Here are smart ways to respond to volume decreases:

Optimize Operations

Carefully review operating practices to identify waste and inefficiency when volumes slow. Consolidate partially full trucks and routes. Adjust staff schedules and roles to maximize productivity. Streamline receiving, putaway, and picking processes. Focus on executing flawlessly on a smaller scale.

Offer Promotions

Encourage shippers to order by offering discounts on shipping rates or waived fees during typically slow periods. Target promotions toward categories that see major declines like holiday gifts or summer products. Promotions give shippers incentive to order ahead, smoothing out volume drops.

Identify New Opportunities

Look for products and services that have counter-seasonal shipping patterns from your typical categories. For example, partner with snow removal companies to offset declining summer volume. Pursue new customer segments that ship year-round like subscriptions and consumables. Fill excess capacity with new business.  

Provide Training 

Lower volumes provide an ideal time to cross-train employees and develop their skills. Train warehouse staff on transportation roles like driving to increase versatility. Conduct refresher training on safety and procedures. Investing in development leads to a more capable workforce year-round.

Perform Maintenance

Complete facility and vehicle maintenance and improvement projects when business is slower. Repair worn warehouse surfaces and equipment. Renovate office spaces or parking areas. Overhaul transportation fleets with new parts and fresh paint. Smoothing out volume drops with maintenance prevents disruptive downtime when business picks up.

Adapting to Unexpected Volume Changes

While major seasonal peaks and valleys can be predicted and prepared for, unexpected fluctuations also occur. Severe weather, market changes, current events, and other factors can alter volumes rapidly. Agility is key to adjusting quickly. Here are tips for responding to unforeseen swings:

Monitor Trends Closely

Watch volume and sales indicators as close to real-time as possible, using data analytics. Monitor news, economic factors, and consumer sentiment that could impact orders. Frequent forecast updating combined with rapid monitoring provides an early warning system for unexpected changes.

Communicate Rapidly

Empower all employees to inform decision makers immediately when shipment or order volumes begin shifting quickly. Set up communication protocols and contact trees so key personnel are notified proactively before volumes get too high or low. Rapid internal communication enables swift action.

Scale Up/Down Swiftly 

Establish contingency plans in advance for either ramping operations up or down in response to volume spikes and dips. Identify trusted partners for short-term transportation overflow, staffing agencies to access workers quickly, and fast ways to activate or deactivate facility capacity. Practice scaling plans to deploy them seamlessly when needed.

Leverage Partnerships and Technology

Strategic logistics partnerships provide flexibility to handle large, fast swings in volume. Tech-enabled transportation platforms can procure extra capacity within hours. Shared warehouse space and crossover delivery agreements with other firms allow efficient scaling. Using partnerships and technology provide more options to adjust quickly.

Conclusion

Major seasonal volume swings and unexpected shifts can present daunting challenges for shipping and logistics companies. However, utilizing forecasting, optimization strategies, rapid communication, and strategic partnerships enables firms to adeptly handle both foreseeable and sudden fluctuations. Maintaining excellent customer service despite volatile volumes provides a competitive advantage. Companies that develop competency in managing seasonal and unforeseen changes position themselves to prosper across all economic conditions.

The expertise to smoothly operate through shipment volume highs and lows is well worth developing. This guide provides a roadmap to handle seasonal peaks while sustaining operations during decreases. By leveraging data, planning ahead, executing efficiently, and adapting rapidly logistics managers can drive success regardless of volume. The ability to master seasonal changes leads to greater customer satisfaction and higher profitability year after year.